13
Mar

Closing costs

Posted by superjumpz

The closing costs are paid at the final rate, when a new mortgage, if it is a purchase or refinance loans. They are not necessarily out of the bag. All or a portion of fees must be included in the loan.

A property is a complex process that involves many different players to take off. Each of them usually has their own fees, with the exception of the buyer.

For example, for the purchase of the house is:

the seller of the property

BuyerEstate

The seller, Real Estate

real estate agent buyer

Assessors

Pest Inspectors

Escrow Officer

Title Officer

the lender

broker loan

Notary

to update the public data public land registers

Every part of the process costs money.

Closing costs are included in the final declaration of closure in detail.

When you apply for a loan within 3 days, you're a "well-preservedFaith Estimate "from the lender or broker of what will be the final cost. This is only an estimate and may change over time.

It is important to separate the costs of closure in different ways:

Third-party fees

These are "neutral" burdens to be borne in a mortgage transaction, such as fees for a public warehouse

Escrow fees – this is the service (a neutral third party trustee) the costs to half of each andDealing with the money fairly and impartially in accordance with instructions from Finance and Contract

Title Insurance – this is insurance that pays the creditor new leader of the beneficiary. What is a policy that protects the lender from any future problems on your property title. In case you discover that the person who sold the house to you was an impostor, not just the songs, etc. In the case of processes with new parts, which are filed after a transaction has the right to ownwholly or partly owned by that title insurance protects the lender. Increase the costs of insuring title to the property value.

Risk insurance – which is the insurance of risks relating to the property. The lender wants to ensure that the policy is in place and paid for a reasonable amount of time in the future – sometimes up to one year.

Costs of preparing the document, registration fees – these are usually relatively small
Notary fee – for the notarization of loanDocuments

Although there may be some scope such costs, they are incurred regardless of who you are with your loan.

Rental Fees

Your broker may charge a percentage of the loan (each 1% of the loan are referred to as a point), a broker handling fee, admin fee brokers, etc.

The lender charges – including the share acquisition tax document design, etc.
Buy-down – that's money that you pay in advance the loan back to the lender at a lower interestRate

Prepaid taxes

The lender may need a few months of property taxes, a couple of weeks in advance of interest, etc. These are the payments of the bills are paid anyway, so in this sense is different from other taxes

This is a basic structure of the accusations. As you can see, the list is quite long. There are objects that can negotiate and shop around, and then there are the elements that are fairly uniform across the various service providers. A loan broker you can have aPoint on a loan of $ 500,000, may require the other only half a point, so there is a difference of $ 2500 (all other factors remain unchanged).

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12
Mar

Subject To Deals – The Perfect Solution to Today’s Financing Difficulties

Posted by superjumpz

I’m going to buy over 100 homes this year and so should you!

Investors today are having a tough enough time with their current investments. Refinances are tough, if not impossible, to do in your investment portfolio at the present moment. With the sliding market we are seeing great prices on homes everywhere but how do you get yourself into the transaction if you’re not able to get a loan on the home?

The “Subject To” deal may very well be the solution to your problem.

The definition of a subject to deal is when you purchase a home from a seller “subject to” them keeping their current financing (loan) on the property for an agreed upon amount of time.

So what does that mean and how can you use this strategy to buy 100 homes in this market?

To give you an idea of how these deals work and why they are win-win powerful deals, let me describe a recent transaction we participated in.

We had a seller who moved to San Antonio about five years ago, then decided it was his wish to move back home to Alaska. (As an investor I never question the cause of motivation.) This particular seller wanted to go to Alaska and now wasn’t soon enough! He didn’t have the time or patience to make the minor repairs the home needed or to let it sit on the market. He wanted a quick sale and just wanted out of the home.

To help him out we agreed to take the home over and closed the deal a week later. We put the home into a land trust and put a renter in the home. Within a month we had purchased a home with equity and cashflow. The seller is now in Alaska and is as happy as can be!

Most of the time you won’t be doing subject to deals with folks who just want to move to Alaska. It is true that subject to’s are normally used to help folks who are JUST entering into pre-foreclosure but still these type of deals work. As a matter of fact, they work like a charm.

Subject to Detractors:

1) A subject to deal is risky because you don’t own the home.

This is an inaccurate statement. When we do subject to deals we ALWAYS have the home deeded to a land trust, which we own.

2) A lender can call the note due at anytime.

While this is correct, I have never seen a lender call a note due on any investor who is paying the note in a timely manner. In fact, I have called lenders to tell them I now have a fiduciary interest in the home and that I will be making payments on the home (Can you spell it out any clearer?) The lenders just say okay and send me the payment information on the property. The bottom line is that lenders want to work with people who make payments on the homes. It does not make sense for them to pay the fees to call a note due when the note is being paid.

I will give this last word of caution to my investor friends. Subject to’s are a great way to buy homes at a discount and with cashflow. But we must always remember we are giving the seller of the home our word that we will make the payments on the home no matter what. The only time subject to deals go wrong is when investors don’t keep their promises and fail to make the payment. Although I would say in this case, it is not the investment strategy that failed but the investor. The bottom line is if you can’t handle the worst-case scenario (you paying the mortgage), then you shouldn’t do the deal. But that is the case with any kind of deal. I take my commitments seriously to my sellers and I advise all investors to do the same.

With that being said, subject to deals are a powerful and helpful way to purchase real estate. In today’s current market this is, above all, the most powerful strategy in buying tons of undervalued homes. It’s why we have made a goal of purchasing over 100 of these homes this year! You too should cash in on these great deals and remember at the same time you’re making money; you are helping lots of people out of bad situations. And that, my friends, is the best way to make money.

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11
Mar

Mergers & Acquisitions Can Result from Strategic Alliances

Posted by superjumpz

Alliances frequently result in mergers and/or acquisitions. Partnering relationships, such as joint ventures or strategic alliances, can sometimes lead to a merger or acquisition situation. After companies work together for a period of time and get to know one another’s strengths, weaknesses, and synergistic possibilities, new relationship opportunities become apparent. One could argue that a joint venture or strategic alliance is simply the getting to know each other part of a courtship between companies and that the real marriage does not occur until the relationship has been consummated by a merger or acquisition.

To make the point, Dan McQueen, president, at Fluid Components International (FCI) built a Partnering relationship with Vortab, a small technology company. Vortab produced static mixers, a technology suitable for flow conditioning that complemented FCI’s product offering. While Vortab also had three other distribution partners in addition to FCI, FCI’s volume with Vortab continued to grow to the point that Vortab’s technology became an important part of FCI’s total sales volume. After about three years into the relationship, FCI acquired Vortab.

Because of the close relationship between Vortab and FCI, when the Vortab was put up for sale McQueen knew its true value. Resulting from his knowledge, FCI was able to purchase Vortab at a much more realistic price than Vortab’s asking price. The Vortab technology integrated well with FCI’s core competency technology and today FCI also distributes Vortab through some of its non-direct competitors.

The following list demonstrates some of the specific values created or developed from the various organizational blending methods:

· Operational resource sharing

· Functional skill transfer

· Management skill transfer

· Leverage (economies of scale)

· Capability increases

Mergers

Mergers occur when two or more organizations come together to blend or link their strengths. Also in the deal is a blending of their weaknesses. The hopeful result is a new more powerful organization that can better produce goods and services, access markets, and deliver the highest quality customer service. Mergers offer promise for synergistic possibilities. This is achieved by the blending of cultures and retaining the core strengths of each. In this scenario, a new and different organization generally emerges. The goal is a sharing of power, but usually the strongest rise to the top leadership.

Exxon – Mobil

The Federal Trade Commission gave Exxon and Mobil the green light On November 30, 1999 for their $80 billion merger. The next day the transaction was completed. The merged organization officially became Exxon Mobil Corp. The merger actually brings “the companies back to their roots when they were part of John Rockefeller’s Standard Oil empire. That company was the largest oil firm in the world before it was busted up by the government in 1911.”

At the 1998 announcement of their intention to merge, Mobil chairman, Lucio Noto made a comment about the need to merge. He said, “Today’s announcement combination does not mean rhat we could not survive on our own. This is not a combination based on desperation, it’s one based on opportunity. But we need to face some facts. The world has changed. The easy things are behind us. The easy oil, the easy cost savings, they’re done. Both organizations have pursued internal efficiencies to the extent that they could.”

While part of the deal was the selling of a Northern California refinery and almost 2,500 gas station locations, the divestiture represents only a fraction of their combined $138 billion in assets. Lee Raymond, Exxon chairman, now chairman and chief executive of the merged company said, “The merger will allow Exxon Mobil to compete more effectively with recently combined multinational oil companies and the large state-owned oil companies that are rapidly expanding outside their home areas.”

Exxon Mobil is now like a small oil-rich nation. They have almost 21 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves on hand, enough to satisfy the world’s entire energy needs for more than a year. Yet, there is still the opportunity to cut costs. The companies expect their merger’s economies of scale to cut about $2.8 billion in costs in the near term. They also plan to cut about 9,000 jobs out of the 123,000 worldwide.

AOL – Time Warner

On January 10, 2000, Steve Case, chairman and chief executive of America Online (AOL), sent an e-letter to his 20 million members. He said, “Less than two weeks ago, people all over the world came together in a global celebration of the new century, and the new millennium. As I said in my first Community Update of the 21st Century, all of us at AOL are extremely excited by the challenges and prospects of this new era, a time we think of as the Internet Century.

I believe we have only just begun to see clearly how the interactive medium will transform our economy, our society, and our lives. And we are determined to lead the way at AOL, as we have for 15 years–by bringing more people into the world of interactive services, and making the online experience an even more valuable part of our members’ lives.

That is why I am so pleased to tell you about an exciting major development at AOL. Today, America Online and Time Warner agreed to join forces, creating the world’s first media and communications company for the Internet Century. The new company, to be created by the end of this year, will be called AOL Time Warner, and we believe that it will quite literally change the landscape of media and communications in the new millennium.”

The next day newspaper headlines read, “America Online, Time Warner Propose $163-Billion Merger.” The Los Angeles Times said, “In an audacious deal bringing together traditional entertainment and the new world of the Internet, America Online and Time Warner Inc. on Monday announced they will merge in the largest business transaction in history.”

The story later revealed the value comparisons of the companies. While AOL earns less than Time Warner, the stock market thinks AOL’s shares are worth more. “America Online is valued by the stock market at nearly twice Time Warner–$173 billion, compared with $101 billion as of Friday’s [1/7/00] market close–even though it has one-third Time Warner’s annual revenues.” The article also stated “AOL earned $762 million on $4.8 billion in sales in the year ended Sept. 30 [1999].”

AOL chairman, Case wants to move fast. The Times article stated, “Case said the two chairman began discussing a combination this fall [1999], he has tried to impress upon Levin [Gerald Levin, chairman at Time Warner] the need to operate the new company at Internet speeds.” (We all know the rest of the story…nothing is forever.)

The prophets of gloom are always ready to point out the down side to deals. In UPSIDE magazine, Loren Fox reported some of the challenges to the marriage. They are:

· “The holy grail of strategic synergy has been elusive in the media world.”

· “In the offline world, it’s notable that Time and Warner Brothers have continued to run fairly independently despite a decade as Time Warner.”

· “‘From any standpoint, this has not been a success to date,’ says Yahoo President and COO Jeff Mallett.”

· “When you buy the company, you get things you don’t need.”

· “Warner might make these deals easier, but it might also bring new risks–even for AOL, a veteran of 25 acquisitions over the last six years. Employees might flee to pure dot-com companies, ego clashes could stymie plans or financial gains may never cover the large premium paid for Time Warner.”

· “You don’t need to own everything to do what AOL and Time Warner are doing.”

Warner-Lambert

Merger mania can make strange bedfellows, let alone promises unfulfilled. Alliances can lead to mergers. Warner-Lambert is an example of all the above. This is corporate soap opera at its best.

· June 16, 1999, Warner-Lambert Company announced that it has signed a letter of intent with Pfizer Inc. to continue and expand its highly successful co-promotion of the cholesterol-lowering agent Lipitor (atorvastatin calcium). The companies, which began co-promoting Lipitor in 1997, will continue their collaboration for a total of ten years. Further, with a goal of expanding their product collaborations, the companies plan to explore potential Lipitor line extensions and product combinations and other areas of mutual interest.

· November 4, 1999, newspapers across America report on “one of the biggest mergers of any kind, ever.” The Wall Street Journal said, “Now, American Home is set to merge with Warner-Lambert Co. in a stock deal that is valued at about $72 billion. It stands as the biggest deal in drug-industry history and one of on the biggest mergers of any kind, ever.” Also reported, “Warner-Lambert held talks with Pfizer Inc. at the same time it was negotiating with American Home.”

· November 4, 1999, The New York Times runs a story titled, “Can a Strong-Willed Chief Share Power in a Merger?” The article lead with, “The planned merger between American Home Products and Warner-Lambert once again raises the question of whether John R. Stafford, American Home’s famously strong-willed chairman and chief executive, is capable of sharing and, perhaps more important, letting go of power.”

· January 13, 2000, Warner-Lambert Company indicated that, as a result of changing events, it is exploring strategic alternatives, including meeting with Pfizer, following Pfizer’s recent approach. In that regard, Warner-Lambert said that its Board of Directors has authorized management to enter into discussions with Pfizer to explore a potential business combination. The Company stated that, in light of changing circumstances, its Board had concluded that there is a reasonable likelihood that Pfizer’s previously announced conditional proposal could lead to a transaction, reasonably capable of being completed, that is better financially for Warner-Lambert shareholders than the proposed merger with American Home Products.

Lodewijk J.R. de Vink, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Warner-Lambert, stated, “It has always been the Board’s objective to secure the best possible transaction for Warner-Lambert shareholders and we will now pursue discussions with Pfizer to determine if a combination with them to achieve that goal is possible.” The Company emphasized that there can be no assurance that any agreement on a transaction with Pfizer, or that any other transaction, will eventuate.

· January 24, 2000, in response to inquiries, Warner-Lambert Company said that it would continue to explore strategic alternatives, including discussions with Pfizer. The Company’s unwavering goal is to provide the greatest value to Warner-Lambert shareholders. Warner-Lambert officials emphasized that there can be no assurance that any transaction will be completed and offered no further comment.

Was American Home Products the bride left at the altar? The Wall Street Journal didn’t think so, in fact they called American Home the Runaway Bride in their November article. Additionally they listed several companies that American Home has them selves left at the altar.

· Early November 1997, American Home Products and SmithKline Beecham begin merger talks.

· January 30, 1999, Talks break off.

· June 1, 1998, American Home and Monsanto announce agreement to merge.

· October 13, 1998, American Home and Monsanto cancel plans to merge.

· November 3, 1999, American Home and Warner-Lambert Co. in talks to merge.

Acquisitions

An acquisition is basically the function of one company consuming and digesting another. The result is that the acquiring company shores up core weaknesses or adds a new capability without giving up control, as might occur in a merger. Added capabilities, rather than synergy is usually the reasoning behind acquisitions. In this situation, the acquiring company’s culture prevails. Frequently one company will acquire another for their intellectual property, their employees or to increase market share. There are numerous strategies and reasons why one company acquires another, as you will soon discover.

Guardian Protection Services has been acquiring alarm companies within its northeast region of operation to supplement its internal growth. Russ Cersosimo, president says, “This is just another way for us to satisfy our appetite for growth. Our desire is to expand our opportunities in the other offices. That is another reason why it is attractive for us to look to acquire companies, to get their commercial base and commercial sales force that is in place in those offices. We wanted to make sure that we can digest the new accounts without putting strain on our paper flow and the systems we have in place.”

Who does R&D acquisitions well? Electronics Business recently answered, “Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose, the networking equipment company, which boasts many success stories among its 40 acquisitions of the past six years.” None of their acquisitions were in mature markets, rather all were leading edge, allowing Cisco to broaden its product offering. Cisco hedges its acquisition bets through volume. Ammar Hanafi, director of the business development group at Cisco says it counts on two out of three acquisitions succeeding and the remaining third doing just okay. Acquiring people, intellectual properties and specialized skills is important to companies like Cisco. They think that even if the acquired technology does not pan out, they have the engineers. Generally, any fast growing company like Cisco cannot hire people fast enough and the acquired personnel are a boon to the company’s progress. Retention of acquired employees is at the heart of their acquisition strategy. “If we’re going to lose the people who are important to the success of the target company, we’re probably not going to have an interest,” says Cisco controller Dennis Powell.

“Cisco doesn’t do big acquisitions, the cultural issues are too huge,” Hanafi says. Cisco buys early stage companies with little or no revenues. While they often have paid extremely high prices for the acquisition, they seem to do better than most with their selection. Between 1993 and 1996, Cisco bought cutting edge LAN switching technologies for a total of $666 million in stock. More than half was spent on Grand Junction Networks Inc., which developed fast Ethernet switchers. At the time of purchase, it is estimated that Grand Junction’s annual revenues were $30 million. “Today, the four LAN switching acquisitions account for $5 billion of Cisco’s $12 billion in annual revenues.” “We acquire companies because we believe they will be successful. If we didn’t believe in their success, we would not acquire them,” says Powell.

Little known West Coast Texas Pacific Group (TPG) has been acquiring at a feverish pace. Their semiconductor and telecom buying spree includes, GT Com in 1995, AT&T Paradyne (from Lucent Technologies Inc.) in 1996, Zilog Inc. in 1997, Landis & Gyr Communications SA in 1998, ON Semiconductor (from Motorola Inc.), Zhone Technologies Inc., MVX.COM and Advanced TelCom Group Inc. in 1999.

TPG banks heavily on intellectual capital. Many believe that by being part of TPG, their single biggest advantage is access to broad pool of talented and well-connected people. CEOs can take advantage of TPG’s contacts in other industries around the world. “TPG has this ability to build a virtual advisory board…that they don’t even have to pay for,” says Armando Geday, president and CEO of GlobeSpan Inc.

Lucent Technologies, Inc. has also been rampaging through the same market as Cisco. Lucent’s 1999 (January to August) acquisitions as listed in CFO magazine include:

· Kenan Systems for $1 billion

· Ascend Communications for $24 billion

· Sybarus for $37 million

· Enable Semiconductor for $50 million

· Mosaix for $145 million

· Zetax Tecnologia, $ N/A

· Batik Equipamentos, $ N/A

· Nexabit Networks for $900 million

· CCOM, Edisin, $ N/A

· SpecTran for $99 million

· International Network Services for $3.7 billion.

An advantage that Lucent has over its competitors is access to its 25,000-employee Bell Labs idea factory. As such, they are more likely to purchase technology rather than R&D. Still, Lucent continually reviews the comparative advantages of technology and R&D in relationship to its own projects in reviewing acquisition possibilities. Lucent executive vice president and CFO Donald Peterson says, “In every space in which we have acquired, we have had simultaneous research projects inside. It makes us knowledgeable, and lets us have a build-versus-buy option.”

Lucent wants their units as a hole to do well and if acquisition helps that cause, they acquire. Peterson also says, “We view acquisition as a tool among many that our business units can use to advance their business plans. We evaluate acquisitions one by one, in the context of the business strategy of the unit.”

Tyco International Ltd. is a diversified global manufacturer and supplier of industrial products and systems with leadership positions in each of its four business segments: Disposable and Specialty Products, Fire and Security Services, Flow Control, and Electrical and Electronic Components. Through its corporate strategies of high-value production, decentralized operations, growth through synergistic and strategic acquisitions, and expansion through product/market globalization, Tyco has evolved. From Tyco’s beginnings in 1960 as a privately held research laboratory, it has transformed into today’s multinational industrial corporation that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The Company operates in more than 80 countries around the world and had fiscal 1999 revenues in excess of $22 billion.

In the mid-1980s, Tyco returned its focus to sharply accelerating growth. During this period, it reorganized its subsidiaries into the current business segments listed above. The Company’s name was changed from Tyco Laboratories, Inc. to Tyco International Ltd. in 1993, to reflect Tyco’s global operations more accurately. Furthermore, it became, and remains, Tyco’s policy to focus on adding high-quality, cost-competitive, low-tech industrial/commercial products to its product lines that can be marketed globally.

In addition, the Company adopted synergistic and strategic acquisition guidelines that established three base-line standards for potential acquisitions, including:

1. A company to be acquired must be in a business related to one of Tyco’s four business segments.

2. A company to be acquired must be able to expand the product line and/or improve product distribution in at least one of Tyco’s business segments.

3. A company to be acquired that will introduce a new product or product line must be using a manufacturing and/or processing technology already familiar to one of Tyco’s business segments.

Tyco also developed a highly disciplined approach to acquisitions based on three key criteria that the Company continues to use today to gauge potential acquisitions:

1. Post-acquisition results will have an immediate positive impact on earnings;

2. Opportunities to enhance operating profits must be substantial;

3. All acquisitions must be non-dilutive to shareholders.

Using its synergistic/strategic guidelines to acquisitions, Tyco succeeded in significantly improving the Company’s positions in each of its four business segments. During the period from 1986 to the present, a number of smaller acquisitions were made to strengthen specific product lines or enhance the Company’s competitive position in the various segments. The major acquisitions were:

· 1986 – Grinnell Corporation, manufacturers and distributors of industrial/construction products (which with Grinnell Fire Protection Systems acquired by Tyco in the 1970s brought back together the two divisions of the original Grinnell Corporation under the Tyco umbrella).

· 1988 – Allied Tube and Conduit, manufacturers of steel pipe and related tubular products.

· 1989 – Mueller Company, manufacturers of water and gas flow control products.

· 1991 – Wormald International Limited, manufacturers, contractors and suppliers of fire protection systems and products.

· 1992 – Neotecha, manufacturers of Teflon-lined butterfly/ball valves and sampling devices.

· 1993 – Hindle/Winn, manufacturers of high performance butterfly/ball valves.

· 1994 – Classic Medical, Uni-Patch and Promeon, three separate companies each involved in providing a disposable medical product or supplementary products.

· Preferred Pipe, manufacturers of forged steel products.

· Kendall International Co., among the world’s largest manufacturers and distributors of disposable medical supplies, wound care dressings, bandaging, elastic support and other vascular therapy compression products.

· 1995 – Tectron Tube, manufacturers of pipe and tubular products.

· Unistrut, manufacturers of metal framing products and services.

· Earth Technology Corporation, an environmental consulting firm specializing in the design of water and wastewater treatment facilities.

· 1996 -Professional Medical Products, Inc., makers of adult incontinence products and other disposable medical products.

· Thorn Security, manufacturer, installer and servicer of fire and security systems worldwide.

· Carlisle, a leading manufacturer of specialty packaging materials and garment hangers.

· Watts Waterworks Businesses, manufacturers of valves, hydrants, and fittings used primarily in water utility, wastewater treatment and power generation markets.

· Sempell, a manufacturing and servicer of specialty valves used in industrial and power generation applications.

· ElectroStar, a leading manufacturer of complex printed circuit boards.

· 1997 – American Pipe & Tube, a manufacturer of steel pipe, tubing for the fire protection, fence markets and steel studs/trusses for the residential and commercial construction markets.

· Submarine Systems Inc., the leader in the design, development, manufacture, installation, supply and maintenance of undersea fiber optic telecommunications cable systems.

· ADT, a leading installer and servicer of electronic security systems.

· Keystone, a leading designer and manufacturer of industrial valves, actuators and accessories marketed worldwide.

· INBRAND, a manufacturer and distributor of adult incontinence products.

· Sherwood Davis & Geck, a manufacturer and distributor of disposable medical products.

L. Dennis Kozlowski, chairman of the board and CEO said, “Tyco is successful because it adheres to basic strategies such as being a high-value producer, keeping our business simple and close to our markets and customers, empowering our employees for greater achievements, while growing internally and through acquisitions.” Good ideas, but too bad about Kozlowski–I guess one should be careful on how much is spent on a birthday party?

Irving Gutin, senior vice president at Tyco has worldwide responsibilities for corporate development and 30 years of M&A experience. In sharing a conference platform with, his conviction was obvious. He said, “We don’t want to partner, we want to own the whole thing–it’s easier that way.”

FASB Accounting Rule Change

The rules of the game are changing. Some of the accounting benefits of acquisition will soon disappear. Spending some extra time with your accounting and legal departments could prove beneficial in the long-term.

George Donnelly, in his article in CFO magazine writes, “The current state of accounting rules is clearly a factor in the frenetic acquisition activity at Cisco Systems and Lucent Technologies Inc. Like many high-tech companies, the two giants can acquire with little drag on their finances, because pooling-of-interest accounting enables them to avoid onerous goodwill charges that otherwise would ravage earnings.

But because of the death sentence the Financial Accounting Standards Board has levied on pooling, companies must use straight-purchase accounting after January 1, 2001. Then buyers will have to amortize goodwill for no more than 20 years.”

Consolidations and Rollups

Bill Wade in Industrial Distribution said: “The basic premise couldn’t be any simpler. Take a highly fragmented industry–like distribution–facing technological change, customer upheaval or chronic financing difficulties. Add in a few well-healed foreign firms or, worse, a couple of previously unknown competitors from outside the business. Since the industry leaders are probably family-run businesses with limited succession strategies, the next step to protect profit and continue growth is clear: consolidate.”

A consolidation or rollup, as it’s frequently called, generally occurs when an organization or individual with deep pockets sets out to buy several small companies in a fragmented industry and rein them in under a new or collective pennant. In 1997 the National Association of Wholesale-Distributors reported that 42 of the 54 industries they studied had been significantly affected by consolidation. Frequently a professional management and buying strength create economies of scale that allows the consolidator to pluck the low hanging fruit in the industry. They will invest significantly in systems to eliminate the duplication of effort and inefficiencies that exist within the industry being consolidated.

While some call it smoke and mirrors, many consolidators are yielding outstanding results. In 1997, at 39 years old, financial whiz Jonathan Ledecky pulled off a bold deal. As reported in CFO magazine, He went to the public equity markets and raised half a billion dollars for his company, Consolidation Capital Corp., in a brazen initial public offering. Without revenues, assets, operating history or identity (name or industry), he raised the capital in a blind pool on the strength of his reputation alone.

U.S. Office Products (USOP) is the result of 220 acquisitions. Sharp Pencil was one of six privately owned office-supply companies that Ledecky put together. But he didn’t stop, after two years, and 220 acquisitions later, USOP was a member of the Fortune 500, with $3.8 in revenues. “It was crazy,” says Donald Platt, senior vice president and CFO at USOP. Platt did rely highly on outside resources, including a team of lawyers and accountants to get the job done (the 220 acquisitions). “We restricted then to well-managed, profitable companies. At worst, we would still be making money,” says Platt.

H. Wayne Huizenga is the owner of the Florida Marlins baseball team. He is also the king of consolidators. He pioneered his technique by rolling-up trash-truck businesses to create Waste Management Inc., the nation’s largest waste company. He went on to create the largest video chain, Blockbuster Video. With AutoNation, Huizenga, now struggling, is attacking the retail automobile industry. In mid-December 1999 AutoNation had 409 retail franchises but announced the closing of 23 of their used-car superstores.

Michael Riley learned about consolidations while serving as personal attorney for Huizenga. In July 1999, Riley’s company, Atlas Recreational Holdings Inc., paid $14 million to purchase controlling interest in the only publicly traded RV dealership chain in the United States, Holiday RV Superstores Inc., in Orlando, Florida. Riley’s avowed intention is to grow the company from $74 in annual sales in 1998 to $1 billion by 2003 by acquiring other dealerships.

Riley says, “Consolidations really will help. We can bring advantages to sales and service. We can make a difference in warranty. There is a real value added when you put these companies together.”

Same Industry, Different Strategies

In mid-1997, roll-ups, United Rentals and NationsRent were formed. They are in a race, but are using different strategies to achieve their results. After two years of ravenously gobbling up companies, United had 482 locations while NationsRent had accumulated only 138 stores. NationsRent has been developing a nationwide identity with stores that look-alike and have the same signage and layout. United Rentals presence is virtually unknown since the stores retain their previous appearance.

Motivations for Consolidators

There are several good reasons why consolidators attack a particular industry. The following list provides some of the rational that assist them in their decision making process. As you look to profit from the trend, keep these elements in mind as you make your selection on whom to acquire.

· Confidence by the players that they can capture significant and highly profitable additional market share by implementing the cutting edge management, procurement, distribution and service practices that will give them a competitive edge over smaller players.

· Gain national customers through increased capabilities in delivering the highest levels of standardized service and national geographical coverage.

· Larger customers of independent distribution channels are seeking broader geographic coverage and networks of locations that allow for greater service capabilities, and the smaller customers want a high level of customer service and response.

· Customers’ desire for more product sophistication.

· Insurance and financing synergies.

Fragmented Industries Are Ripe for Consolidations and Rollups

Some industries that are ready for consolidations or rollup examples include heavy-duty truck repair, office products, recreational vehicle dealerships, rental stores (equipment, tools and party) and distribution. Consolidation does not just happen. It is triggered by shifts in supplier and customer expectations. Consolidation in a supplier base or customer pool often alters the economic rational for the structure of an industry. Functional shifts are accompanied by serious margin shifts among channel participants.

Take notice of the speed in which an industry can experience consolidation. If you are a consolidator, pick the low hanging fruit before another beats you to it. If you are fighting consolidation, take notice of the state of your industry and make adjustments (like strategic alliances) to your business plan if your industry is highly fragmented.

· TruckPro, the $150 million sales creation of Haywood and Stephens Investments, was sold in May 1998 to AutoZone, the $3 billion distribution king of do-it-yourself auto parts.

· In June 1998, nine heavy-duty distribution companies with volumes of $6 to $37 million, simultaneously merged and raised $46 million from the public for their brand new $200 million company, TransCom USA.

· Brentwood Associates, a venture capital company, during Spring and Summer1998, created HAD Parts System, Inc. a $145 million operation, by acquiring three companies in the Southeast.

· In July 1998, Aurora Capital’s QDSP acquired majority interest in nine heavy-duty companies from FleetPride, a $200 million parts and service operation.

Stated in Truck Parts & Service, “Here the independent suffers a staggering disadvantage to roll-ups. Consolidators have access to large amounts of capital. The independent businessperson, however, must primarily finance his growth by earnings retains from current operations. New high efficiency service bays, significant and growing training expenses, data processing and communications technology all clamor for increased working capital. The large players’ acquisition cost advantage eventually will win him all the mega-fleet business and the vast majority of business from mid-sized fleets.

Supplementing his parts acquisition cost advantage, the consolidator will be able to lower many overhead costs through centralized management and volume discounts…Combined savings in parts acquisition cost and overhead reduction should easily exceed 4% of sales.”

Some of the indicators that an industry (any industry) is poised for consolidation are listed below. If you notice your industry has similar issues, it is just a matter of time. Plan now for what is coming. Where do you want to be when the train arrives?

· A high degree of fragmentation with numerous smaller companies and few, if any, dominating players.

· A large industry that is stable and growing.

· Multiple benefits for economies of scale.

· Synergies that can be achieved by consolidating companies.

· Infrequent use of advanced management information systems.

· Limited access to public capital markets and somewhat inefficient capital structures among companies.

· Lack of opportunities, historically, for owners to liquidate their businesses if they wish to leave the industry.

Reasons for Business Owners Selling to Consolidators

The reasons for a business owner to sell his or her business are as varied as there are people. Usually it is not one reason but several combined reasons that influence a seller’s decision. The following list provides you with the general areas that might drive a selling decision:

· First generation owner, without heirs, nearing retirement.

· Lack of capital to make necessary technological and capital improvements to compete, within an industry, and with new competitors.

· Flat growth rate in industry.

· Better profitability as part of a larger organization.

· Centralized buying.

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11
Mar

How to Change Your Business Name

Posted by superjumpz

Was there a time when your business name fit you like a glove? Do you wonder if it’s helping or hurting in reaching your goals? If you’re thinking of stepping into the name change game, it can become overwhelming without a plan. For better results, make sure your business goals come into play during the naming process.

Changing a business name involves challenges you may not have thought of or faced before, both tangible and intangible. What is the reason for changing your name and what is the key message that your new company name needs to convey? Does your business have a story to tell or is it a new focus on a product or service? A new name needs to connect with your target market, be memorable, and still fit you, your business and marketing goals. What is the signal that you want to send?

1. Discovery

First, evaluate of your current name’s equity, what does it have going for it? Get input from your employees and customers, you may need an outside research firm to support this effort. Next, define the objectives, challenges and goals for your name change. Now you can create clear and measurable naming criteria. A clear plan will help to establish consensus with stakeholders including your board and management.

2. Creation & Securing

Come up with a list of relevant possibilities for your new name based on your industry, business style, and audience. When you evaluate those names consider a few basics like; is it easy for people to say and spell; is it easy for people to remember; could it be confused with similar names? Create a list of considerations for evaluating your company name possibilities. When you narrow your choices do the preliminary trademark work, this is critical and requires legal research and web searching. Final trademark research by a trademark attorney is recommended.

3. Customer Retention

Name change is always concerning and can be unsettling. Take your time, develop a risk assessment of target audiences, and create a communication plan to support your name change choice. Have a plan that introduces and explains the changes, and what won’t be changing, so customers and employees accept the change.

4. Logo & Standards

With selection and approval of a new name, your design team can develop a new logo that embodies the new name and brand attributes. Have a Graphic Standards Manual on hand that contains all the specifications of your new name, logo, and related information- make sure it’s available to everyone.

5. Education & Launch

Internally, everyone needs to be on the same page for the introduction of the new name. Externally, the questions need to be answered before they are asked. Have a communication plan and education materials to make sure your launch is smooth and synergizing.

FOCUS ON YOUR CUSTOMERS.

Now that you have a grip on a great new name for your business, make sure your branding, marketing, and sales tools are ready to go. Review your goals along the way to make sure you are building a positive experience and delivering the products and services that you’re promising in the way they expect.

Visit our site http://www.JCDI.com to read case studies and get more information about naming and marketing your business.

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10
Mar

Make Money Renovating And Flipping Houses

Posted by superjumpz

If you are thinking about getting into home renovation and flipping houses, then be aware that certain types of properties are best suited for this purpose. Far too many persons invest in homes that do not earn them a profit.

If you are new to home flipping and real estate investing, be cautious with houses requiring any form of structural repairs. Until you are a seasoned professional, it is advisable that you get an estimate from a reliable contractor, and have them fix the house, if the cost is within your budget. Look for homes that only need minor repairs like a new coat of paint, cleaning up, or just new flooring. Unless you have experience or a background in home construction, you are advised to do the simpler tasks yourself and leave the more complex tasks to a contractor.

The key thing to do as a house flipper is to learn as much as you can about the real estate market. That way you can identify the bargains on the market when you see one. You can start out by surveying your immediate area or community, and look for the “For sale” signs. Have an idea how long houses in a particular area or price range take to sell, and the general sales terms. This will inform you as to how sellers are marketing their houses’. Keep in mind that older houses are usually in demand, because buyers prefer not to wait until new homes are built. Once you understand the market, you will have a good idea about what buyers want, and how to renovate accordingly.

It is more than likely that you will have to pay for certain costs, such as taxes on the property, transfer costs, legal fees, mortgage application fee and other closing costs. There are loans available that will allow you to take a part of your equity and create a deferred mortgage interest.

You may also consider some cheap home insurance, to cover any potential loss or damage that may occur, while you are flipping the house. Your cheap home insurance can be for a short period of time, depending on how long it takes you to renovate and sell the house.

Be aware of the tax situation as you may end up paying capital gains tax. If you live in a high tax area, your local government is likely to assess you for federal taxes.

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09
Mar

China Using More Natural Gas Vehicles

Posted by superjumpz

We were excited that someone else finally brought it up.

In a recent television interview, Boone Pickens told a reporter he was surprised to discover there were 9,000 buses in China running on natural gas.

In an era of worrisome global warming events, it’s hard to argue with a transportation system that has proven to reduce particulate emissions by 95 percent compared to diesel engines and which also reduces carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by 75 percent and 49 percent, respectively.

Those are the statistics UPS provides with regards to its 800 vehicles now running on compressed natural gas (CNG). UPS has the largest private CNG fleet in the United States.

Many cities in China could use the same clean air treatment. And like anything Chinese, natural gas consumption appears to be moving forward at breakneck speed.

Air pollution in Beijing and in many other rapidly growing Chinese cities has been a nagging ache in the side of China’s leadership. The recent growth spurt of automobile usage, replacing decades of bicycling, have further aggravated the untenable air climate. Combine this factor with Beijing’s mandate to clean up the air in time for next summer’s Olympiad, and the first appropriate target are the vehicles.

Although Beijing won’t convert its transportation fleet that fast, every little bit helps in the scheme of things.

According to the International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles, the most recent (and mostly outdated) statistics show more than 6.3 million natural gas vehicles (NGV) and over 10,000 NGV refueling stations. As of January 2005, China stood just behind the United States in global rankings for such vehicles, respectively eighth and ninth.

The number of NGVs compared to traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles is a drop in the bucket. But some of the more ambitious trade groups hope to reach a target of 50 million by 2020.

China offers the most immediate promise, which is probably what drove Boone Pickens to this marketplace. His California-based Clean Energy Fuels Corp provides 200 fleet customers, which have about 13,000 NGVs, with the refueling capabilities for those vehicles with the company’s 168 natural gas fueling stations.

By building distribution networks, corporate and government consumers can more readily access the natural gas to power their vehicles.

This fact is evidenced by the momentum of tiny China Natural Gas, which is servicing the city of Xi’an in China’s Shanxi province. Maybe you’ve never heard of the town, but the city now boasts a population of about 8 million. Compressed natural gas reportedly powers 20,000 taxis, 3,000 buses and 2,000 special purpose vehicles. Over the next three years, the city’s leaders hope to nearly double those numbers.

China Natural Gas now has 23 CNG filling stations in the city and hopes to expand outside Xi’an and into Henan province. Since late April, the company’s shares have more than tripled in value.

Boone Pickens envisions a big opportunity in China’s natural gas for transportation purposes. Generally, gas is used to fuel electrical power plants or for cooking. We first brought up the accelerating use of NGVs in our recent publication, “Investing in China’s Energy Crisis,” because of China’s struggle to quickly and efficiently import sufficient oil to power its economy.

Face it, China has a massive energy appetite. Pickens remarked during a recent television interview, “The activity is unbelievable.” In previous articles, we compared China’s energy-consumption and expansion to the Anglo-American-European Industrial Revolution during the eighteenth century.

China’s Coalbed Methane Activity Intensifies

China has a huge appetite for foreign investment to develop all stages of the natural gas fuel cycle. We have focused our coverage on the front end of the cycle, especially on coalbed methane gas. This makes sense for China as the country has one of the most plentiful supplies of undeveloped coalbed methane (CBM) gas on the planet. In addition, the country has a long tradition of coal mining and expertise. CBM comes from coal mines and China has the largest number of operating coal mines in the world.

Speaking with Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading in Chicago, he told us about China’s drive to power their transportation system with natural gas, “We are years behind China.” He pointed out that switching over in the United States would become a nearly impossible venture. “We don’t have the supply,” he said. “We would have to drill under the Rockies and under the Great Lakes, and then we would still become dependent upon natural gas imports.”

China has already begun the country’s campaign for an energy crossover.

About twelve months after China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced it approved the country’s coalbed methane development plan, new developments have been parading across our radar nearly every week. The commission targeted production to reach 10 billion cubic meters by 2010.

On June 27, Shanghai CIMIC Life invested $196 million to develop a coalbed methane project in Jiangxi province. Construction is already underway.

On July 4, China National Petroleum Corp began exploring a new coalbed methane discovery in the Xinjiang Autonomous region.

On July 6, Shanxi Ganghua Coalbed Methane Corp began construction of China’s first large scale CBM project – a coalbed methane liquefaction project.

On July 8, a PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) subsidiary signed an agreement with Shanxi Energy Industries to develop a CBM site in northern China’s Shanxi province. The World Bank will finance US$80 million of the US$190 million project.

On July 20, the city of Shenyang, and capital of Liaoning province, announced it would begin increasing its coalbed methane consumption in the region’s heavy industries to help reduce the level of pollution in the area.

On July 24, China’s NDRC approved a proposal from the first foreign company to develop a coalbed methane mine in China’s Shanxi province. Asian American Gas is the first foreign company to obtain NDRC approval in 20 years, and the first to do so in partnership with state-owned China United Coalbed Methane (CUCBM) since this corporation was formed. The plan’s initial capacity was reported at 500 million cubic meters annually. We reported in late January that U.S. coal baron, E. Morgan Massey, had backed this company.

China is optimistic about the country’s coalbed methane reserves. Two years ago, Xu Dingming, a director of the NDRC’s energy bureau estimated that China’s CBM reserves were roughly equivalent to the country’s natural gas reserves.

In December 2006, China’s Ministers of Finance, Customs and Taxation agreed to introduce tax breaks to companies which imported equipment for the development of coalbed methane resources.

This notice came after it was reported that China’s CBM-utilization had failed to meet the targeted 36 percent – falling short by nearly one-third. Since then, state-owned companies and the government have been intensifying their efforts to accelerate CBM exploration and development in China’s coal fields.

Over the next twelve months, we expect these efforts to escalate CBM development to a more highly visible international level.

More Players Entering China’s CBM Sector

One of the problems in the United States, according to Phil Flynn, is complacency with storage numbers. “Natural gas storage is a buffer against supply,” he said. “But if we have extreme weather this summer or a long, cold winter, production can’t keep up with demand.” He pointed to the spike following Hurricane Katrina in the summer of 2005.

The Chinese don’t have this buffer. Instead, they are faced with either further straining the world’s energy sources by importing natural gas (and crude) or by developing their domestic energy fields.

The significant news from Asian American Gas, a privately held company which we previously covered, is encouraging for others now developing their projects.

Companies we’ve featured in the past – such as Far East Energy, Green Dragon Gas and Pacific Asia China Energy – have moved their projects forward against a very bearish tide. We believe they are well-positioned to follow in the footsteps of Asian American Gas. Current output is modest at the company’s six test wells at 300 thousand cubic meters, but again, this is a nice start.

Many North American investors haven’t yet looked beyond their borders in developments for natural and coalbed methane gas projects. The price of natural gas in North America is relatively meaningless in Beijing or Xi’an.

These companies should benefit from China’s recent acceleration to obtain more methane gas, natural or CBM, to power their vehicles. The average bus consumes about 70 cubic meters of compressed natural gas per day (CNG). A typical taxicab uses an average of 30 cubic meters CNG every day.

A strong selling point for the increased use of natural gas vehicles: the price of fuel. A hybrid vehicle, which also utilizes compressed methane gas, cuts the fueling cost by 60 percent. How would the U.S. consumer feel about paying $1.20 per gallon instead of $3/gallon at the gas pump? Probably the same way – one cubic meter of compressed CBM gas is the equivalent of 1.13 liters of gasoline and retails for less than half.

As we pointed out in late June, institutions have begun investing in this sector. With the next round of conferences in North America, during the fourth quarter and early next year, we suspect more institutions should take China’s coalbed methane projects more seriously. ‘Celebrity’ names such as Boone Pickens, Morgan Massey and others provide a comfort level for many cautious investors. But then again, it is the pioneers who make the biggest money, if the projects materialize.

In early July, W.R. Hambrecht rated Clean Energy Fuels a “buy” with an $18 price target. During his recent television appearance, Pickens noted another two analysts picked up on the company. And we couldn’t agree more with Pickens, judging from emails readers have sent us. Pickens thought people didn’t really understand the story, at first. Now as more have digested what is taking place, Pickens said, ‘they like the story.’

And we completely agree with Pickens’ comments to reporters, saying, “We think that (natural gas refueling stations) will be very big business in China.” This development is not unlike the growth of cellular phones in China. The country skipped the enormous infrastructure implementation for traditional landlines and zoomed to mobile telecommunications. Judging from our communications, and from what others have told us, the clarity of reception and reliability surpasses the standards in North America.

Building more NGV refueling stations will help drive the demand to bring more natural and CBM gas into China’s distribution network. It is probably a major trigger to capture both international media and investor attention for this sector.

While we take natural gas for granted in the United States, the Chinese have taken this fuel source very seriously and embraced it. By devoting their energies in developing their transportation systems with increased natural gas consumption, the country’s atrocious pollution history might be reversed.

COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview.com

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09
Mar

America’s Real Estate Market Trends

Posted by superjumpz

The median home price hit $ 506,000 County of Los Angeles in March 2006, climbing above the half million dollars for the first time in history. This figure is twice what was the average for the area only four years ago.

The good news for prospective home buyers in other parts of the country is that half a million dollars is still a little 'house to buy in much of the rest of the United States. For example, although Central Oregon is located in a significant increase inpopulation and housing prices, the average income is less than Los Angeles County, although still higher than a significant number of other areas of the country. Thus, the average price rose to a house in Bend for over 30% in 2005 to U.S. $ 327,500. Another city, Central Oregon, Madras, has seen an upward adjustment of 187% the number of online sales in the first quarter of 2006.

The biggest driving force behind the boom in house prices in Oregon and in the south-west and north-west Pacific, is aInflux of Californians who sell their expensive homes and move to areas where they usually buy more house for less money. Another factor is that, with increasing values, many local owners of capital in redemption of their homes and trade up to more expensive.

Another area that grows significantly San Antonio, Texas, where the average price of a house more than 9% last year to $ 131,900. San Antonio Real Estate Marketmirrored that of LA County, however, with few sales, even though prices were higher overall. There is also a considerable amount of new home construction taking place in that area, as well.

Some areas of California are booming as a result of skyrocketing prices in Southern California. One of the busiest is the area that includes Riverside, Ontario, and San Bernardino, which has seen an unprecedented increase of new residents from 2000 to 2004, of which and estimated 46,000 were transplants from the Los Angeles metro area.

In the southeastern United States, Florida also continues to grow at a brisk pace, fueled in large part by an influx of former residents of the greater New York City area. In fact, an estimated 41,500 people moved from that area to Orlando, Miami, and Tampa in 2004. One reason the area is experiencing such rapid growth is employment opportunities. The area’s employment scene was once dominated by Disney World, but that’s no longer the case.

Copyright © 2006 Jeanette J. Fisher

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08
Mar

Investing in Clean Energy – The Obvious Thing to Do

Posted by superjumpz

Investing in Clean energy, either through green stocks, green funds, setting up your own business, investing in your own energy system, or education is perhaps the best investment decision that you can make at the moment. Although we are by no means investment advisors some straight forward Mr. Spock like thinking got us there.

The upside potential of this sector is enormous. If you define the potential market for these products as the same that are now using fossil fuels we are talking about a $3.5 trillion a year market. This is a market in which even the smallest crumb can set you off to a South Pacific retirement if you like.

That these renewable energy sources are going to replace the old conventional forms is beyond doubt. The reserves we have, the production capabilities, and the exponentional growing demand for energy from ourselves and the emerging economies is already fuelling a very painful supply and demand system.

The US is totally depended on a resource of which it needs almost three times as much as it can produce. And the energy needs of the emerging economies are growing at such a pace that it will not take as long as we first thought that most of the easily accessible wells are going to dry up. As a result prices will increase even further.

With our Fossil Fuel addiction we have placed ourselves and our economy at the mercy of powers beyond our control.

Meanwhile the renewable energy industry is showing double digit growth rates. According to the International Energy Agency the tempo is really impressive.

A Quick Breakdown of the Annual Growth in this sector

Solar Energy 17%
Tidal Energy 13.2%
Wind Energy 11.7%
Geothermal Energy 4.7%

These are annual growth rates and therefore compound rates, meaning that they build on each other like interest on money or debt. At first glance you might think that an expansion like this is not sustainable in the long run. If so I challenge you to think again. Let’s do some math.

Today about 82% of our energy comes in the form of fossil fuels, about 6% from clean energy forms, and the rest is generated through nuclear reactors. When we take the increasing energy demand into account these figures mean that by 2030 about 10 – 15% of our total energy needs are met by renewable energy sources.

The Sales Volume of the Sector

An estimate about the present size of the alternative energy sector is difficult to give. The rapport Clean Energy 2007 for the Clean Edge program estimates the total worldwide sales at about $55 billion for 2006.

This is a sharp increase from the 40 billion of 2005. Projecting CleanEdge growth expectancy into the coming decade and growing an average of 15.1% annually means that this market will grow from 55.1 billion now to 226 billion on 2016.

That fact that a lot of venture capitalists are turning to the solar-power business, does mean that these people with very keen noses on where money is going to be made makes the case for investing in clean energy even stronger.

The world has always known periods of change that have proven enormous opportunities to those who were willing to look beyond the old know strategies and a death trap to those who didn’t. A thriving vinyl record or type writer company from the 1970’s turned into a worthless collection of machinery in the 80 ties.

An unknown company hardy worth investing in turned within a decade into the world largest software producer. And a few guys that were dissatisfied with search engine technology changed that whole playing field within a few years. And a decade ago nobody had ever heart the name Google. Meaning, even if we don’t think about it as obvious it doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

Under the Editorial Guide Lines of this article directory we are not allowed to supply you all the reference links to CleanEdge, National Energy Agency and other sources mentioned in the article. For further research we suggest you visit our site or reference Google.

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07
Mar

Analyzing the World Markets – How to Find an Investment Edge

Posted by superjumpz

In order to prosper in the world market, you must understand the world, and how money and institutions look at the world.

Sector Analysis of the world market: Analysts, fund managers and investors classify the world into sectors for ease of understanding and to be able to focus on growth opportunities. They focus by putting their money on certain sectors consistent with their beliefs on why certain sectors will have advantages over other sectors. They charter their funds to abide by these philosophies, and the managers must stay within these boundaries. Their flexibility comes from adjusting within these parameters. The amounts of money they move are huge, and it takes time to make their adjustments, far more time than it takes individuals to observe, react and adjust. The action of adjusting institutional size money affects the market while the adjustment is being made, because they affect the dynamics of supply and demand. These changing dynamics are detectable through price changes within and between sectors. The market is an organic whole and so none of these static classifications is true or false. They are merely useful, more or less.

Typical ways of looking at the market and at companies within the market are:

(a) Functional: based on type of business activity or business sector. You can keep dividing into as many useful classifications as are helpful. The S&P 500 companies can be classified into 9 sectors, 1 of which is “high-tech”. High tech can be divided into many sub sectors, with each “space” having its own dynamics. High-tech sub sectors could include areas like: semiconductor manufacturers; long haul broadband service providers; network management software developers etc.

(b) Geographic: based on region, there are sectors corresponding roughly to continents. Thus you could think of the world market consisting of sectors like: Asia Pacific, Europe, US, North America, Latin America, or conversely: 1st World, 2d World, 3d world emerging markets.

(c) Capitalization Size: You can think of publicly traded companies in sectors as a function of their market capitalization. For example as rules of thumb you can classify by large cap (10B+) Medium cap (2-10B), small cap (200M-2B), micro cap (

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04
Mar

China Races for Energy Security to Keep Pace with GDP Growth, Part Two

Posted by superjumpz

China’s Problem: Putin’s Desire for Superpower Status

With Putin’s star rising, Russia has aspired to block China’s energy ambitions in Central Asia. When China embarked on a Sino-Kazak strategy, Boris Yeltsin was still president. Since then, Putin and his inner circle of Chekists (named after the Soviet Union’s first secret police squads) have begun tightening the noose around the ex-Soviet states. The mandate driving Putin’s fellow ex-KGB insiders is Russia’s return to superpower status.

This became evident on October 26th 2005, when SCO’s top officials met in Moscow for their annual conference. Because India’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Prime Minister attended as SCO-invited observers, Putin boasted the populations represented by SCO member states and observer countries exceeded three billion people. He bragged he had gathered “half the planet” at the Kremlin. At the top of the SCO agenda were energy issues, such as expanding the oil and gas sector and exploration of new hydrocarbon reserves. Of course, these are the issues which are clearly foremost on the mind of the Chinese.

But has Putin’s mood swung further toward impudence? When Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao announced the Sino-Russian bilateral trade turnover might surpass $28 billion, Putin challenged, “I hope this happens.” While even Russia’s media suspected Putin used the SCO conference as his egocentric publicity showcase, Russia depends upon China’s economic prowess to uplift its own economy. Will there come a time when Russia is less fearful of China’s economic might? This might be well into the future. Russia’s economy continues to require an ally in China. Politically, Russia depends upon China politically as a buffer from the U.S. The September EU-China Summit to be held in Helsinki should offer clues about the tentative Sino-Russo alliance. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will give the keynote address, and possibly helping to forge closer alliances with Russia’s neighboring Finland. After all, Nokia is based in Finland, and China is the world’s largest consumer of mobile phones and services.

One has to wonder if Russia has been slowly closing China’s door to Central Asia over the past few years. Gazprom’s press secretary, quoted in a 2004 interview in Vedomosti, announced, “… sharing mineral resources with foreign countries is against our policy… In fact, sharing oil with the Chinese would be even more inappropriate.” Gazprom, for example, is now developing Uzbekistan’s gas fields for export to the West, and not to China. (See part two of this series.)

The delicate equilibrium between Russia and China – one where both countries hope to maneuver against further U.S. meddling (or as cynics call it, imperialism) in the Middle East – requires yielding as few concessions to the other as need be conceded. When China moves too boldly, Russia plays upon its alliance with Japan to keep China in check. Both use their U.N. Security Council vetoes as negotiation tools in carving out petroleum, and other commodity interests, to preserve their energy security issues.

China serves Russia’s political aspirations in quelling U.S. expansion into the Middle East. Having decades-long ties with Iran and other Muslim states, Russia has a convenient ally in China, when using Iran as a thorn in Washington’s backside. And China still remembers the oil concessions it lost in Iraq, after the U.S. invasion of that country. China likely frets about the unending squabble over Iran’s uranium enrichment aspirations in light of having lost those Iraqi oil concessions.

Pragmatic China Resorts to Trading with

Rogue Nations for Energy Security

At the mercy of a ruthless global energy market, pragmatic China has turned to nations which are shunned by U.S. interests. One productive Silk Road leading to China begins in Iran. More specifically, it starts in the Yadavaran oil fields where the Chinese oil company Sinopec plans to import about 150,000 barrels of crude per day, after it has developed these oil fields. Initially, the October 2004 deal was reportedly valued at $70 billion. However, additional developments and China’s substantial purchase of Iran’s vast natural gas reserves may increase the value of this multi-decade energy deal to more than $200 billion. What could go wrong? Look at the daily headlines: Iran wants to enrich its own uranium. Unless this situation is resolved, escalated political tensions could impair China’s ability to import oil and gas. Obviously, China would take great pains to avoid an Iraqi rerun in Iran.

Out-maneuvered by western oil companies in obtaining many of the world’s proven oil reserves, China has cultivated the Sudan as its largest oil provider. Sudan depends upon the pragmatic Chinese for its economic and military strength. China is also the principal source of hard currency for Africa’s largest country. Rejected by the world’s community for the genocide it is committing in West Darfur, Sudan exports its oil to China for Chinese weaponry. China finds little competition for Sudanese oil. The Chinese are the largest single shareholders dominating Sudan’s oil company consortium. It is the largest investor in a 1,500-kilometer pipeline delivering Sudanese oil to the Red Sea, which is then shipped by tankers to China.

China has not limited its African oil purchases to one country. Another blighted nation, Angola believes it could soon surpass Nigeria as Africa’s largest oil supplier. According to the World Bank, China may have recently offered Angola about $9 billion in credits and loans. Two years ago, it was reported that China extended a $2-billion loan to Angola for 10,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Now, it appears China is eager to help Angola build sufficient infrastructure in that country to develop another strong energy source.

Hoping to create a Silk Road across the Pacific from South America, China has continued its hunt for energy security by developing ties with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. This may come to naught. Venezuela’s highly sulfurous crude would first have to be refined in the United States. China lacks the refineries for handling the heavy crude oil. Over the past year, China’s oil imports from Venezuela amounted to orimulsion from the Orinoco Tarbelt, mostly used for asphalt.

New refineries, however, can be built to remedy the heavy oil Venezuela might provide. According to a recent special edition of the McKinsey Quarterly, China will be forced to heavily invest in refineries for all the crude oil it has committed for, “To keep up with surging demand, the country needs to build a large, technologically world-class refinery every year for the next 15 years, at a cost of $2 billion apiece.” China lacks the refining capacity to meet its current needs. In the first half of 2006, China’s imports of refined petroleum products jumped by nearly 50 percent, compared to the same six-month period in the previous year.

Although Venezuela hopes to become one of China’s top three oil suppliers, it is likely more hyperbole than a realistic possibility before 2010. As China’s proven oil reserves continue to deplete, it may very well have to turn to Venezuela at some point for this country’s vast oil reserves. Outside of the Middle East, Venezuela may have one of the last great oil resource – reportedly at greater than 80 billion barrels of crude. The question is not if, but how fast can,Venezuela accommodate China’s ravenous appetite for its country’s oil?

Venezuela also has the largest natural gas fields in all of South America. Earlier this year, Brazil and Argentina (two of China’s favorite Latin American trade partners) discussed with Venezuela the possibility of building a gas pipeline across the Amazon. A 5000-mile gas pipeline would need a port destination for LNG tankers to supply China. Instead, talk of an oil pipeline through Colombia could be replaced by a gas pipeline.

China’s approach, in dealing with what the Anglo-American alliance call “rogue nations,” reflects one of reported non-interference in a country’s political affairs. It is a Chinese pragmatism, which many find amoral. By contrast, in what way is America judged around the world by its military invasion of Iraq? When U.S. President Bush recently criticized Vladimir Putin about democracy in his country, the Russian President pointed out that Russia’s democracy was quite different from the one the U.S. had created in Iraq for the Iraqis. One has to wonder how long China’s laissez faire doctrine will last. And whether China can continue developing new energy silk roads at the rate its GDP growth commands.

Some believe China doesn’t need so much oil right now. In the first half of 2006, according to Xinhua news, China’s refinery output was seven percent less than the country’s domestic crude-oil production. Despite producing 85 million tons of crude oil, China still imported 70 million tons of oil (on top of 12 million tons of refined oil). Is China hoarding to avert a future political crisis, or does it expect its energy ’silk roads’ to soon close or become blockaded?

The McKinsey Quarterly researchers also reported if China continues at its current pace, it would need to buy up about three percent of the world’s proven petroleum reserves. That’s more than all of the reserves held by Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell and others. As we have been reminded by energy analysts, getting oil out of the ground costs more, the quality of oil is falling and more water is found in the oil. All of this has registered on not only on the radar screens of Chinese energy advisors and politicians, but also at the gasoline pumps where filling up a tank should continue to increase every year. As Deng advised about getting rich, it can be glorious but the furious process of getting there has not only been taxing for China, but also for the rest of the world.

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